Assignment #4B | Top 5 Predictions From the Web

Hi readers,

I apologize for this post being out of order. Today I will be discussing the top five worst predictions that I have researched on the web. I will be using the same criteria for these predictions as I did in my last blog post.

1. "No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody." -Bill Gates, Founder of Microsoft

Now, Bill Gates, is the founder of a company that sells computers to over 10% of the world. This is such a ridiculous claim, as many of our smartphones have even more memory than this now. Computers require such power and memory nowadays, that this claim seems so outdated and ridiculously false. Although the applications of the computer were not as advanced when this quote was said, Gates should have accounted for technological progress and advancement to allow for more memory.

2. “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” -Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO

From a Microsoft CEO, this quote seems naturally competitive but extremely false. Today, the iPhone holds the most market share out of any smartphone, indicating its massive success and popularity. In fact, the phone has developed such a cult following among its users, that it holds close to 50% market share with 14% worldwide.


3. "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home." -Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corp

Ken Olsen absolutely failed to predict the applications of the personal computer for forms of business, communication, and entertainment. Although Olsen had to envision large and bulky computers in personal homes, he should have been able to predict technology's ability to shrink chips and computer sizes to make them more accessible to everyone. 

4. "Within the Next two decades,  automobiles will be made with folding wings - Eddie Rickenbacker, Pilot

This, unlike the other quotes that I have included, seems like a ridiculous overstatement to the power of technology. In the future, automobiles with folding wings may be a reality, but the prediction that this would be possible within two decades of 1924 seems absolutely ridiculous. Currently, no technology on the market allows for automobiles to be driven; not to mention, regulations and laws concerning these automobiles would need to be created directly following their introduction. 

5. "There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States." -T. Craven, FCC Commissioner

This prediction is actually so false that it seems to directly contradict what space satellites are actually used for/capable of. Today's science utilizes technology for communication services far beyond government services. Looking at GPS for one example, satellites are able to communicate directions and maps to such a wide number of people. Regarding the rest of communication services mentioned in this quote, Craven failed to account for the rapidly changing arena of technology that is constantly pushing applications of satellites forward.