I apologize for this post being out of order. Here is my prediction for the Top Five worst predictions based on the PowerPoint that was presented to us in the last lecture. I based my reasoning and logic off of the justification provided in each quote and also the level of prestige that speaker has.
In no particular order, I would like to present my predictions:
1. "The world potential market for copying machines is 5000 at most.” — IBM, to the eventual founders of Xerox, saying the photocopier had no market large enough to justify production, 1959
In today's society, almost every business and nearly every home has a copy/print machine. This market is evidently larger than what was predicted, and Xerox is clearly a billion dollar company that crushes this false prediction made by IBM. With the advent of later Xerox machines, this company has allowed for increased efficiency in businesses and daily life alike.
2. "No one will pay good money to get from Berlin to Potsdam in one hour when he can ride his horse there in one day for free." – King William I of Prussia, on trains, 1864
King William I's logic is definitely incorrect here, as the only thing he considers to have real value is physical money. In reality, time is actually worth more than physical money itself, and people will come to value their time more and more. Looking at today's society, a great percentage of people would rather pay some extra money to save the 23 hours (extra hours for riding the horse).
3. "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home." – -Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), in a talk given to a 1977 World Future Society meeting in Boston
Ken Olson is extremely flawed with his reasoning here, mainly due to the fact that such a large percentage of people in the first world now own a personal computer. People now use computers for work, to find information, and to communicate with others. It is actually laughable to think the chairman and founder of the DEC would doubt that capabilities of technology with regards to personal computing.
4. “ We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." – Decca Recording Company on declining to sign the Beatles, 1962
Decca Recording Company's logic is so flawed here due to the reality that The Beatles became one of the most influential bands of all time, revolutionizing sound and music in a way that brought guitar music back in. As seen today with modern music, the guitar is still a primary instrument, and The Beatles' timeless music is a testament to their influence and popularity among the public.
5. "If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one." – -W.C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute, 1954
We can observe flawed logic here in the field of healthcare. It is astonishing to believe that a representative from the NCI could have such flawed logic as this. Underplaying the harmful effects of smoking due to limited knowledge and understanding (based on the time period) indicates this flawed logic, especially with the deathly effects on smoking now known. Smoking actually leads to lung and oral cancer, and Heuper would have felt silly with modern knowledge and technology.
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